Lux Boosts Their Micro-Hybrid Vehicle Forecast to 39,000,000 Cars a Year By 2017
John Petersen A couple days ago Lux Research published a new report titled “Every Last Drop: Micro‐ And Mild Hybrids Drive a Huge Market for Fuel‐Efficient Vehicles” that focuses on rapidly growing markets for micro-hybrid vehicles and their battery systems. During 2011, automakers sold an estimated 5,000,000 micro-hybrids worldwide, mainly in Europe. By 2017, Lux forecasts global micro-hybrid sales of 39,000,000 cars a year and a $6.3 billion annual market for their battery systems, which represents an across the board average of $161 per vehicle compared to an auto industry average of less than $60 per...
Energy Storage on the Smart Grid Will Be 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool
7.17.09 Storage Week John Petersen Infocast’s Storage Week was all I had hoped it would be, and more. While I thoroughly enjoyed serving on three discussion panels and was warmly received by roughly 250 attendees, including executives of companies that I've occasionally criticized, the most important value for me came from the opportunity to hear four days of high-level presentations by industry executives, national thought leaders and policymakers who repeatedly stressed that: From a utility perspective grid-based energy storage is the functional equivalent of an instantly...
There’s Graphite In Them Electric Vehicles
by Debra Fiakas CFA The market for lithium ion batteries is expected to reach $46 billion by 2022. That represents 11% compound annual growth over the next six years. Few other markets if any are growing at such a feverish pace. The adoption of electric cars is the center of the excitement, but the proliferation of smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices also plays a part. Suppliers of critical battery materials such as lithium, cobalt and graphite are salivating over potential sales to battery manufacturers. Graphite with its strong conductivity and heat-resistant qualities is a perfect material...
The Wanxiang Transaction Is Not Necessarily A Permanent Solution For A123’s Problems
John Petersen On Wednesday A123 Systems (AONE) announced the execution of a Non-binding Memorandum of Understanding with the Wanxiang Group that will, if successfully implemented, restore A123 to a sound financial footing. Since the basic deal terms are a good deal more complex than the reports one reads in the mainstream media, I think a drill down into the detail may be helpful for investors who want to understand what a restructured A123 will look like. The critical document for this analysis is the MOU included as Exhibit 99.2 to A123's recent report on Form 8-K. The...
Axion Power: Is There Light At The End Of The PIPE?
Tom Konrad, CFA A light at the end of the PIPE? Photo by Tom Check In my last article, Axion Power’s Potential For Explosive Growth, I outlined a number of near-term business opportunities for Axion Power International, (OTC:AXPW) any one of which could catapult the company into profitability in 2014, and more than one of which could produce significant revenue growth this year. While I’m quite bullish about Axion’s prospects, I concluded with a skeptical comment about Axion’s stock: f I owned the stock today, I would be a seller at the current...
Axion Power and BMW Report Impressive Performance Test Results
John Petersen After seven years of cautious disclosures about the development status, performance and market potential of its serially patented PbC® battery technology, Axion Power International (AXPW.OB), in conjunction with BMW (BAMXY.PK), has finally released impressive performance test results that show why the PbC battery is a superior choice for automotive stop-start applications. Concurrently, Axion released a white paper that discusses stop-start battery requirements in detail and offers some hints about the PbC battery's potential for use in other emerging energy storage markets. The presentation and the white paper do not show small, incremental gains like you...
Lithium-ion Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Plug-in Vehicles
John Petersen In November 2006, a slick issue-oriented documentary asked the provocative question "Who Killed the Electric Car" and argued that General Motors' EV1 project was terminated because of collusion between the auto and oil industries. The truth is nobody killed the electric car. It died in infancy from congenital birth defects and the same flaws that killed the EV1 will probably kill Tesla Motors, Fisker Automotive, Nissan's (NSANY) Leaf and GM's Volt. This is not a question of cost, performance, abuse tolerance or cycle-life. It's a fundamental flaw in the economics of using batteries to replace a...
Energy Storage: A Bloody Q3 is Creating a Great Buying Opportunity
John Petersen Tom Lehrer is frequently credited with a quip that perfectly summarizes my feeling about the financial markets in the third quarter, "Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?" During the quarter we were given box seats to classic political opera in two acts. Act One was set in Washington DC while Act Two moved to Europe so we could hear the same tortured songs of woe in a different language. We all know the opera has to end with the immensely popular "Kick the Can Chorus," but we suspended disbelief, bought into...
Investing With The Flow Battery
by Debra Fiakas CFA The looming threat of global warming has nearly everyone - except perhaps those bickering with each other in the Whitehouse - scrambling for lower carbon energy sources. Intermittancy remains a stumbling block for several of the lower-carbon renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar energy systems. To be a serious contributor to grid-connected power systems these energy sources need utility scale batteries that can store energy when the sun is down or winds have died away. Unfortunately, with current technology the cost of such battery capacity increases the levelized cost of energy (LCOE)...
Canadian and Tanzanian Graphite Connections
A list of graphite companies covered in this series can be found here.
Like performance test results, customer relationships are critical stepping stones for graphite developers. In June 2018, Northern Graphite (NGC: TSX-V) announced a memorandum of understanding with a European trading company to sell 100% of the output from Northern’s Bisset Creek resources in Ontario, Canada. China-based manufacturers are the intended end-users. Northern management is using the arrangement as leverage with prospective investors to finance mine infrastructure and processing equipment. Capital costs are expected to exceed CA$145 million.
Northern claims a proprietary purification technology the company intends to use to upgrade its graphite output. Its Bissett Creek deposit...
Investment Opportunities in Large Scale Electricity Storage
The Economist had two great articles last week on two of may favorite themes in renewable energy, which I missed getting to Charles in time for The Week in Cleantech. Both deal with modernizing the grid to deal with the vagaries of wind. The first is an in depth look at electricity transmission via High Voltage DC, a subject I recently wrote about in an article on ABB. The second dealt with compressed air energy storage (CAES) which is the second cheapest way to store electricity, after pumped hydro. Unfortunately, I have not found good ways for the stock...
Viva the Cleantech Revolution
It’s official! Cleantech, the sixth industrial revolution, has arrived on time and in the midst of extraordinary crisis. Like every good revolution, blood is flowing in the streets; the guillotine is en route to Wall Street and the mob is so busy plotting retribution for the excesses of the past that most have no time to consider the future. But as yesterday’s dynasties decay, crumble and fall, a new generation of visionaries is already building on the wreckage of the past. These are indeed troubled times that bear an eerie resemblance to the opening sentence from A Tale of...
Nemaska Sprints to Early Lead In Lithium Mining Race
Thank Elon Musk with his Tesla (TSLA) gigafactory for sparking a global obsession with lithium-ion batteries and the materials need to turn them out. Claimed by Musk to be the largest building in the world, the factory was planned to reach capacity in stages. By the time the factory is fully completed in 2020, production capacity is expected to be 150 gigawatt hours of battery packs.
Ever since construction of Musk’s gigafactory began in 2014, investors around the world have been fretting over the adequacy of lithium supplies in particular. The gigafactory concept appeared to trigger a whole slew of ‘me too’ factories...
Arotech’s Batteries and Power Systems Division to Develop Zinc-Air Batteries for UAVs for Major...
Arotech Corporation (ARTX) announced that its Batteries and Power Systems Division has received a second development contract from a major US agency. Under the contract, Arotech's Electric Fuel Battery Corporation subsidiary will develop prototype zinc-air batteries for small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to achieve extended flight times. The funding is expected to cover development costs.
Johnson Controls Forecasts Enormous Stop-Start Growth
John Petersen On June 27th Johnson Controls (JCI) hosted their 2011 Power Solutions Analyst Day and unveiled their expectations for the future of stop-start idle elimination systems. After noting that all automakers are developing a range of powertrains, JCI used this graph to emphasize their view that the overwhelming bulk of alternative powertrain vehicles over the next five years will have simple, cost effective and fuel efficient stop-start systems. You don't see much about stop-start systems in the mainstream media because politicians and reporters are too enchanted with plug-in vehicles and other exotica...
Metal-Air Battery Stocks
by Debra Fiakas CFA A small Israeli battery developer, Phinergy, is getting attention in the press for a road test of a Citreon C1 car outfitted with Phinergy’s metal-air batteries. Confined mostly to military applications, metal-air batteries have not gained as much attention as lithium-ion applications. Indeed, the Citreon is principally powered by a lithium-ion power package that has been installed in the trunk. Phinergy’s metal-air batteries are to be used as a range extender. Long-use is really the metal-air battery’s main attraction. Like regular batteries Phinergy’s metal-air battery has an anode. It is made from...
