UMICF - Umicore (US OTC) Archives - Alternative Energy Stocks https://44.206.15.128/archives/tag/umicf/ The Investor Resource for Solar, Wind, Efficiency, Renewable Energy Stocks Wed, 06 Jul 2022 17:40:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.0.9 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022-2023: The List https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2022/07/10-clean-energy-stocks-for-2022-2023-the-list/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2022/07/10-clean-energy-stocks-for-2022-2023-the-list/#comments Fri, 01 Jul 2022 23:55:01 +0000 http://www.altenergystocks.com/?p=11174 Spread the love        By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA With the launch of my (green dividend income focused) hedge fund early this year, I had to take a hiatus from publishing my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks that I feel will do well in the coming year.  Since my duty to clients takes precedence over […]

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By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

With the launch of my (green dividend income focused) hedge fund early this year, I had to take a hiatus from publishing my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks that I feel will do well in the coming year.  Since my duty to clients takes precedence over readers, I could not tell people about stocks I liked before buying them for the fund.

As we complete the first half of the year, the fund is now largely invested, although I am still keeping some buying power back in anticipation that the overall market could easily fall further, leading to even better opportunities than we see today.  

Since I’m not actively buying in the fund, I am now free to share my top picks with the public.  Like everything in my hedge fund, these are all companies that, in my judgment, reduce the fossil fuel use, carbon emissions, or other pollution in the overall economy by operating and expanding their businesses.

I probably won’t be able to publish monthly updates to this list as I have in the past.  If I am actively buying any one of these stocks, I will not be writing about it, and I will not want to tip my hand by writing about the others while just omitting one or two.  But I plan to publish intermittent updates on the whole list when I can, and will do a recap in July 2023 to look at how the list did in the past year and why.

Valuation and Timing

The recent declines of the stock market are finally giving us decent valuations, better than anything we’ve seen since the short-lived market bottom in early 2020.  That’s not to say that the market will not fall further, but it’s likely that many individual stocks are currently seeing their lows. 

Whenever I see a stock I like trading at a good valuation, I buy some.  If it falls further because of a continued general market decline (as opposed to bad news at the company itself), I buy more. These ten stocks have all reached the “buy more” stage.  If the market keeps falling, I’ll soon be ready to invest everything I can, and even start using uncovered short puts to take on a bit of leverage.

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022-2023: The List

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

Ten Green Stocks I expect to do well over the next year (7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023)

Prices are as of the close on 6/30/2022.  1€ = $1.0482, $1 = 7.0972 DKK = C$1.2876 

Clean Transportation Stocks

  • MiX Telematics (NASD:MIXT – $8.14) – A provider of vehicle tracking and telematics to large international vehicle fleets.  The company is green because it both reduces accidents and fuel usage for its customers.
  • Valeo, SA (FR.PA – €18.42 or US ADR: VLEEY or US foreign stock ticker: VLEEF) – a provider of electrified drive trains, sensors, and comfort systems for the automotive industry.
  • NFI Industries (NFI.TO C$13.39 or US foreign stock ticker: NFYEF) – A leading international bus and motorcoach manufacturer selling a large and growing number of electrified vehicles.  N

Green Building Stocks

Rockwool A/S (ROCK-B.CO 1597.50 DKK and ROCK-A.CO or US foreign stock ticker: RKWBF) – a manufacturer of fire and mold resistant building insulation.

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (NASD:HASI) – A financier of solar, wind, biogas, and energy efficiency installations.

Green Municipal Infrastructure Stock

Veolia (VIE.PA €23.29 or US ADR: VEOEY or US foreign stock ticker: VEOEF) – A large international developer and operator of municipal infrastructure such as water, wastewater, recycling, and environmental remediation.

Biofuel Stock

Enviva, Inc (EVA $57.22) – A vertically integrated wood pellet supplier to European and Japanese markets, where they mostly displace coal in electricity generation.

Recycling Stock

Umicore, SA (UMI.BR €33.32 or US ADR: UMICY or US foreign stock ticker: UMICF) – A vertically integrated recycler of hard-to-recycle and specialty metals used in clean energy industries such as batteries, solar, wind, and catalytic converters.

Green Electricity (Yieldcos)

Avangrid (NYSE: AGR $46.12) – one of the top producers and developers of renewable electricity in the United States.  

Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (NASD: AY $32.26) – an international owner and developer of renewable energy, efficient natural gas, electric transmission line and water assets.

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022/23 portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Earnings Roundup: Metals Prices Boost Covanta and Umicore https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/05/earnings-roundup-metals-prices-boost-covanta-and-umicore/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/05/earnings-roundup-metals-prices-boost-covanta-and-umicore/#comments Thu, 13 May 2021 14:32:49 +0000 http://www.altenergystocks.com/?p=11012 Spread the love        By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA You don’t have to own mining companies to benefit from rising metals prices. This is a roundup of first quarter earnings notes shared with my Patreon supporters over the last week. Waste to energy operator Covanta and specialty metals recycler Umicore are both benefiting from skyrocketing metals prices. […]

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By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

You don’t have to own mining companies to benefit from rising metals prices.

This is a roundup of first quarter earnings notes shared with my Patreon supporters over the last week. Waste to energy operator Covanta and specialty metals recycler Umicore are both benefiting from skyrocketing metals prices.

Just as renewable energy and energy efficiency stocks have long shown that investors don’t have to own fossil fuel companies to benefit from rising prices of fossil fuels, recyclers like Covanta and Umicore are showing that you don’t have to own environmentally damaging mining companies to benefit from rising metals prices.

Covanta Earnings

Everyone could find something to like in last week’s first quarter earnings at Covanta (CVA).  

Revenue and income all showed strong growth over the prior year.  This was driven by strong pricing trends in metals, waste disposal (“tip”) fees, and energy prices.  These gains were achieved despite higher planned outages for maintenance in 2021 compared to the prior year.  This will reduce the need for additional maintenance outages later in the year.

In addition, the company increased its guidance for the full year, and expects further improvements to come from the strategic review as it renegotiates contracts or closes unprofitable operations.  It seems likely that many of these renegotiations will come at the 19 municipally owned plants in the US that it operates under contract.  The company also anticipates significant savings from overhead.

In short, everything is coming up roses.

Pinellas
Covanta plant at Pinellas
  • The company is performing well
  • The macroeconomic environment is favorable
  • New plants will be coming online over the next 3 years in the profitable UK market
  • Additional savings are expected from the strategic review.

Covanta is definitely a stock to hold even in this relatively overvalued market.

Umicore and Hydrogen

Umicore (UMICF, UMICY, UMI.BR) released its first quarter update as well as a presentation on its positioning in the hydrogen economy in late April.  

In the business update, they’re driving with fully charged batteries:

  • Metals, and especially the precious metals, prices are soaring, boosting their recycling business (which also increased its volumes)
  • Automotive production is recovering, helping their catalysis business.  The shift away from light duty diesel vehicles is also helping them increase market share.

Umicore currently expects its 2021 earnings to slightly exceed the guidance released just in February.

Hydrogen

With much talk of the hydrogen economy, especially in Europe, Umicore released a timely presentation on how they have and expect to participate.  The company already has a strong position as a supplier of catalysts for the PEM fuel cells used in Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs), and have won a number of supply contracts for future fuel cell vehicle platforms.  As of 2020, Hyundai Motor has produced 6,781 Fuel Cell Vehicles using Umicore as a supplier.

They also announced a new partnership with Anglo American Platinum (AAL.L, ANGPF, ANGPY) to develop a liquid carrier which would be used in hydrogen transportation.  They see significant long term growth potential in both this and as a supplier of catalysts to the electrolyzer market.

Conclusion

It was hard to describe Umicore as a value stock when I added it to the 10 Clean Energy Stocks list at the start of the year, and it’s even harder today, given the 30% appreciation since then, I continue to value it for the exposure it gives to the materials used in clean transportation technologies.  Other ways to get this type of exposure include mining stocks and electric vehicle companies like Tesla (TSLA).  I do not invest in mining companies because of environmental concerns, and I do not invest in “story” stocks like EV manufacturers because I like to focus on “boring” stocks that benefit from the same trends, but not everyone is talking about.

It’s much easier to get an edge in your investment analysis when you are one of the few investors paying attention.  

DISCLOSURE: Long CVA, UMICF.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Buying Foreign Stocks: To ADR or Not To ADR https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/buying-foreign-stocks-to-adr-or-not-to-adr/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/buying-foreign-stocks-to-adr-or-not-to-adr/#respond Sun, 10 Jan 2021 23:11:33 +0000 http://www.altenergystocks.com/?p=10873 Spread the love        by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Since my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list contains 5 foreign stocks this year, a reader asked about the relative merits of buying a foreign stock compared to a US ADR.  Here is a summary of the relative merits (for US investors) of buying a foreign stock […]

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by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

ADR

Since my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list contains 5 foreign stocks this year, a reader asked about the relative merits of buying a foreign stock compared to a US ADR.  Here is a summary of the relative merits (for US investors) of buying a foreign stock directly compared to buying the American Depository Receipt (ADR).

First, let’s look at the tickers for the five foreign stocks in the list.  There are four types of ticker in the list this year:

  1. The stock on its home exchange in the local currency.  These have the form TICKER.EX, where TICKER is the stock ticker on the foreign exchange, and EX is an abbreviation for the name of the exchange.  European stocks usually trade on several European exchanges. I try to use the ticker on the exchange with the most liquidity, which is usually also in the company’s home country.
  2. The US ticker for the foreign stock – a five letter ticker ending in F.
  3. An unlisted ADR – a five letter ticker ending in Y which trades over the counter.
  4. A listed ADR – this is an ADR that trades on a US stock exchange such as the NASDAQ or NYSE.

For the companies in the list this year, MiX Telematics is the only one with a listed ADR, MIXT.  I don’t usually mention its listing on the Johannesburg stock exchange, MIX.JO because it does not have a corresponding US ticker, but include it here for completeness.

The others all have unlisted ADRs:

Company Foreign Exchange Foreign Ticker US Ticker US ADR ADRs per Foreign share Approx ADR fees in 2020 per ADR
MiX Telematics Johannes-burg MIX.JO MIXT 1/25 $0.012
Red Electrica Madrid REE.MC RDEIF RDEIY 2 $0.056
Valeo, SA Paris FR.PA VLEEF VLEEY 2 $0.027
Veolia Paris VIE.PA VEOEF VEOEY 1 $0.085
Umicore Brussels UMI.BR UMICF UMICY 4 $0.03

 

ADR fees are often withheld from dividend payments to ADR holders, but can also be charged directly to the account holding the ADR.  Both holders of the foreign stock and holders of the ADR will also have foreign taxes withheld from the dividend payment.

I have not found any way to determine how much an ADR fee will be.  Sponsoring banks can change ADR fees over time, and sometimes they are charged as a fixed number of cents, other times they are a percentage of the dividend.  I called and asked my broker to look up the total ADR fees charged on each of the ADRs above in 2020.  The results are in the last column. 

Foreign Stock or ADR?

To determine if you are better off buying the foreign stock (F ticker) or the ADR (Y ticker), you should first determine the commission your broker will likely charge you for either trade.  I usually just enter the trade into my broker’s online platform to see the estimated commission but hit “Cancel” instead of confirming the trade.  If the commissions for the foreign stock and the ADR are the same, then buy the foreign stock.

If the commission to buy the foreign stock is higher, then you have to consider how long you plan to hold the stock and how much you intend to buy.  

Small investors and investors not expecting to hold the stock for long will find the ADR is usually more cost effective. Larger investors and long term holders should generally buy the foreign stock.

Rule of Thumb

I find that I typically pay an extra $50 per trade for a foreign stock compared to an ADR.  I generally hold stocks for one to five years. Since there is also a similar fee to sell the stock, I will generally pay an extra $100 to buy and sell a foreign stock.  Annual ADR fees seem to usually be around 1% of the share price, so if I can make a trade large enough to keep the extra commission paid less than 1% and hold the stock longer than a year, it makes sense to buy the foreign stock rather than the ADR.

As a formula, I buy the foreign stock if 

D x Y > 100 x C 

Where D is the size of the trade in dollars (500 shares at $10 is $5,000), Y is the number of years I expect to hold the stock or ADR, and C is the extra commission I have to pay to buy the foreign stock.  Since my expected holding time is typically stocks is 2 years or more and I usually pay an extra $50 to trade foreign stocks, the foreign stock purchase will usually make sense for trades of $3,000 or more.  

In general, I dislike ADR fees, so I try to buy foreign stocks using large trades. 

DISCLOSURE: Long MIXT, REDIF, VLEEF, VEOEF, UMICF..

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

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Four Picks and Shovels Stocks https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/four-picks-and-shovels-stocks/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/four-picks-and-shovels-stocks/#respond Mon, 04 Jan 2021 20:01:42 +0000 http://www.altenergystocks.com/?p=10859 Spread the love        by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA The last three months of 2020 brought an explosion in clean energy stock prices. Solar stocks (as measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), nearly tripled.  So did the Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), which includes a broader spectrum of companies.  Wind stock rose 61%, and even […]

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by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

The last three months of 2020 brought an explosion in clean energy stock prices.

Solar stocks (as measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), nearly tripled.  So did the Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), which includes a broader spectrum of companies.  Wind stock rose 61%, and even the relatively sedate Yieldcos were up 32%.  The stars of the last half of 2020 was undoubtedly Tesla (TSLA, up 246%) and other electric vehicle stocks.

Clean energy stocks 2H 2020

Money Flows Out of Fossil Fuels and Into Clean Energy

I believe that the cause of the current rise in stock prices is largely the fossil fuel divestment movement, which gained significant momentum in 2020.  Not only have I been hearing greater interest in divestment from individuals, but major money managers like Blackrock and the New York State Pension Fund have stated their plans to divest from fossil fuels over time.  If you have not already taken your money out of fossil fuel stocks, you are late to the game.  As I wrote in 2014, when it comes to divestment, the last one out loses.

The same goes for investing in clean energy stocks.  While not all the money taken out of fossil fuel stocks flows into clean energy stocks, some of it does.  The market capitalization of clean energy stocks is quite small compared to the amount of money flowing into the sector: Demand for shares in clean energy companies is rising faster than companies are going public or issuing new shares.

Issuing New Shares

Economics 101 tells us that when demand increases faster than supply, the price rises.  This is exactly what we have seen in clean energy stocks in the second half of 2020.  We also learned that when price rises, it induces increased supply: More clean energy companies will go public and/or issue new shares.

Rising stock prices bring more than just stock market profits, they are also significant for the companies.  Companies will refrain from raising money in secondary offerings unless they are confident that the offering will be “non-dilutive.”  A non-dilutive share offering is one in which the money will be invested in a way that increases earnings more as a percentage than the number of shares is increased.  This allows the offering to have the effect of increasing future earnings per share, despite the increase in the number of shares.

As a company’s stock price rises, more potential investments become non-dilutive, and investments that are already non-dilutive become even more attractive. The company’s private competitors will also benefit.  They will find it easier to raise money from investors who use the valuations of publicly listed firms to determine what the firm is worth.  

If clean energy stock prices stay at their current level for a few months, we will see increasing numbers of companies going public through IPOs and Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).  We will also see more established companies raising money through secondary offerings.

The Gold Rush

As I learned when I took California History in elementary school, the most reliable way to make money in the state’s 1849 gold rush was to sell picks and shovels to aspiring gold miners.  Three of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 model portfolio are metaphorical picks and shovel suppliers to clean energy industries.

If Tesla’s stock price rise is any guide, there will be significant new investment flowing into manufacturing electric vehicles.  Autoparts manufacturer Valeo, SA (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY) specializes in vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, and comfort systems, so it’s clearly well positioned to help automakers focus more on Tesla’s specialties: Electric and autonomous driving.

Global water, energy, and waste management giant Veolia (VIE.PA, VEOEF, VEOEY) is also firmly in the picks and shovels business, although their clients are more often large multinational companies and municipalities rather than clean energy firms.  Yet Veolia is a potential beneficiary from the boom in clean energy stocks.  They own and develop clean energy and recycling projects which could potentially be sold when acquisitive clean energy companies start bidding up the prices of clean energy projects.  They also have access to valuable urban real estate at their municipal utilities where they could develop solar and wind projects for sale to clean energy firms with money to spend.

Umicore, SA (UMI.BR, UMICF, UMICY) is also well positioned for the boom in electric vehicles.  It produces cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries, and is a battery recycler.  The electric vehicle boom is currently constrained by the supply of lithium-ion batteries and the supply of specialty metals (lithium, manganese, cobalt and nickel) that go into their manufacture.  The mining of many of these materials often takes place under exploitative and environmentally harmful conditions in poor countries.  Although still a small portion of the battery materials market, Umicore’s recycled materials can claim a price premium based on battery manufacturer commitments to ethically sourced raw materials.  Although still in their infancy, recycled content mandates like the one Europe recently passed will also play a role.

Finally, dry bulk shipping firm Scorpio Bulkers, Inc. (SALT) is repositioning itself to sell picks and shovels to the burgeoning offshore wind industry.  Dry bulk shippers carry bulk unpackaged cargoes like ore, grains, coal, and metals.  Scorpio is selling its dry bulk shipping fleet and using the proceeds to buy offshore wind turbine installation vessels.  In addition, it is applying to change its name to better reflect its future business.  

While SALT’s first wind turbine installation vessel is unlikely to be delivered until 2023, I believe that the rebranding will allow the company to attract part of the flood of cash pouring into the clean energy space.  

It is also value priced. The company had 11.5 million shares outstanding, $1,429 million in assets, and $675 million in liabilities at the end of September 2020.  It expects to write down the market value of its vessels by between $475 million and $500 million to reflect their true market value.  That market value is also the price at which they are currently being sold.  It has made nine announcements of ship sales since mid-November.  Since the sales are ongoing, we can expect its write-down estimates to be reasonably accurate.  After the sale of its vessels, its main assets will be easy-to-value cash and contracts to buy wind turbine installation vessels.  After subtracting liabilities, Scorpio will be worth approximately $254 million to $279 million, or $22 to $24 per share.  The stock is currently trading in the $17 to $18 range.

Conclusion

Unless it suddenly reverses, the recent run-up in clean energy stock prices is likely to lead to a real-world investment boom in clean energy.  While undoubtedly necessary to accelerate the world’s transition away from fossil fuels, not all such investments will be profitable, especially when they amount to buying other clean energy companies at also inflated prices.

During an investment boom, the companies selling tools and supplies to the investors are often more profitable than the investments themselves.  That’s what I hope for Valeo, Umicore, and Scorpio Bulkers (under a new name that highlights its new business) in 2021.

DISCLOSURE: Long VLEEF, UMICF, SALT, VEOEF

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: The List https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/ten-clean-energy-stocks-for-2021-the-list/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2021/01/ten-clean-energy-stocks-for-2021-the-list/#respond Sat, 02 Jan 2021 17:38:24 +0000 http://www.altenergystocks.com/?p=10855 Spread the love        by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA An annual tradition, here is my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021, which is also the new model portfolio for the year, with equal dollar values of each stock using closing prices on 12/29/2020.    Returning Stocks Mix Telematics (MIXT) Green Plains Partners (GPP) Covanta Holding (CVA) Red Electrica […]

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by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

An annual tradition, here is my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021, which is also the new model portfolio for the year, with equal dollar values of each stock using closing prices on 12/29/2020.   

Returning Stocks

New Stocks

  • Scorpio Bulkers, Inc. (SALT) – Dry bulk shipper converting to offshore wind construction.  Thanks to Thad Curtz for bringing my attention to this one.
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (BEP) – A leading clean energy Yieldco with significant hydropower assets.
  • Umicore, SA (UMI.BR, UMICF, UMICY) – Leading recycler of batteries and specialty metals.
  • Avangrid (AGR) – Owner of renewable generation and utilities.

As I track this model portfolio over the year, I will continue using the Global X YieldCo & Renewable Energy Income ETF (YLCO) as a clean energy benchmark and the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) as a broad market benchmark, while throwing in the performance of my real money managed portfolio, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP) for good measure.  The chart below shows preliminary numbers for 2020.

10 for 20 full year

As I discussed last week, this was another difficult year to find clean energy stocks that I think are good values.  It’s a great thing for the planet that the fossil fuel divestment movement seems to be driving up the prices of clean energy stocks, but it makes life harder for value investors like me.

Given the high valuations, I think it’s important to keep some cash on the sidelines, but my track record on calling market tops is abysmal, so I never get totally out of the market.  

I’ll be following up this list with a series of articles looking at the individual holdings in depth over the next week.  My Patreon supporters can read drafts of the first two here and here.

Update

You can now read all the articles looking at these stocks in more depth through the links below:

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the list.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Ebay: A Sustainable Social Distancing Stock https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2020/04/ebay-a-sustainable-social-distancing-stock/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2020/04/ebay-a-sustainable-social-distancing-stock/#respond Fri, 10 Apr 2020 15:10:42 +0000 http://3.211.150.150/?p=10369 Spread the love        by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Of the few survivors of the dot com bust, Ebay (EBAY) is a perennial also-ran.  It owned the market for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions in 2000, but has since repeatedly lost market share.  Nevertheless, the company remains a profitable business that enables the sustainable reuse of easy to ship […]

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by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

Of the few survivors of the dot com bust, Ebay (EBAY) is a perennial also-ran.  It owned the market for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions in 2000, but has since repeatedly lost market share.  Nevertheless, the company remains a profitable business that enables the sustainable reuse of easy to ship items while returning cash to investors.

Note: My supporters on Patreon got an early look at this article.  Want to support my work and get previews of my writing?  Join them here.

The Competition for Sellers

In the early 2000s, Ebay lost sellers to Amazon’s (AMZN) marketplace, which had the advantage of getting listings in front of a larger group of buyers, and has since added more services for sellers, such as delivery services through Amazon’s impressive logistics arm.  More recently, specialist competitors like Etsy (ETSY) for crafts , and PoshMark for fashion have attracted younger users who prefer an app-based interface.

Many sellers prefer Ebay for its lower fees compared Amazon and other competitors, and its pure customer to customer model means that it has no inventory or warehouses, and its operations are not disrupted by trying to maintain social distancing.   Other sellers list on multiple platforms, but offer better prices on Ebay because of the lower transaction fees.

This is why I believe that social distancing is an opportunity for Ebay to claw back some market share from Amazon.  The stories of third party sellers being second class citizens on Amazon’s platform have been prevalent for years, most notably Amazon using its data to directly compete with third party sellers in any category that it starts to see as particularly profitable.  Sellers can succeed quickly through access to Amazon’s legion of buyers on its Marketplace, but if they become too successful, they will likely find themselves competing with Amazon itself.

Sellers discovered another problem with their reliance on Amazon when the company decided to prioritize the delivery of “essential” items in March.  While prioritizing life saving items over toys and knick-knacks is likely a good use of Amazon’s overtaxed warehouse workers, this is small consolation to a small online seller who needs the income to buy their own essential items.  These frustrations will likely lead sellers to be less likely to trust all their eggs to Amazon’s basket.

Looking Forward

Ebay’s revenues, and number of sellers and buyers have been basically flat in recent years, and the company did not expect that to change when it issued its guidance for 2020 at the end of January.  The company did expect single digit earnings per share growth, driven mostly by share repurchases.

Those share repurchases and the new dividend were motivated by activist investors who have forced the company to start returning value to shareholders in the absence of growth.  The company now has a new CEO and two new board members nominated by the activists.  They have also led Ebay to consider the sale of some of its properties, including the very fortuitously timed sale of StubHub for $4.05 billion (approx $5/share) in February.  Further shoring up the balance sheet, Ebay followed this sale by refinancing and extending the term $1 billion of its senior unsecured debt with lower interest notes due in 2030.

Before the crisis, the expectation had been that Ebay would use its strong cash position to invest in its platform, and accelerate its stock buybacks.  The new reality means that Ebay is in a good position to be a consolidator by buying up less well prepared rivals.

Sustainability

For me, “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle” is not just an alliterative list of sustainable actions which I incorporate in my personal life, it’s also a list of investing themes I try to incorporate in my portfolio.  For reduce, I have stocks that incorporate energy efficiency like Hannon Armstrong (HASI) and Ameresco (AMRC).  For recycle, I have Umicore (UMICF, UMICY, UMI.BR), Schnitzer Steel (SCHN), and Greystone Logistics (GLGI).  The essentially anti-consumerist nature of reuse makes it a particularly difficult investing theme to participate in.

I’ve wanted to include Ebay or another C2C marketplace as the first “Reuse” stock in my portfolio for a long time, but until recently, Ebay’s valuation and lack of dividend have kept me away.  The recently initiated dividend and stock decline have changed that.  Combine that now with potential opportunities to claw back market share from Amazon and potentially purchase distressed rivals, and I’m buying.

Or at least I’m selling cash-covered puts on Ebay.  I like to think of buying a stock as a bet that it will go up, or, if it doesn’t, that the dividend will exceed any decline.  Selling a cash-covered put, or buying the stock and selling a covered call are similar strategies that I think of as bets that the stock will not fall permanently.  If the stock falls below the option strike price, the investor will own the stock at a cost below what it was trading at when the bet was made.  If the stock rises, the investor keeps the option premium and cash.

In terms of Ebay’s prospects, the company is cash rich, and its operations are unlikely to be disrupted by the pandemic.  It may even see some upside.  The loss of income for too many people in this crisis will lead some to explore new ways to earn cash.  Selling off unneeded stuff on online platforms is an easy and quick option, especially people who want to avoid in person transactions.

Trading

Good valuation, a strong balance sheet, opportunities arising from people staying at home, and overall sustainability all led me to use a cash covered Ebay put as a new position in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio at the start of the month.

The market and Ebay stock fell the following day, and have since recovered, so readers who follow the model portfolio would have had an opportunity to make the trade.  If you missed that window, I expect the market to remain volatile in both directions for months to come as investors sort out what this pandemic and the response to it mean for the economy.

It is that expected volatility that leads me to prefer cash covered puts to the direct purchase of stocks in current market conditions.  If your account does not have sufficient options permission to sell cash covered puts, purchasing the stock and selling a covered call has the exact same risk/reward profile.

If you do not have options permission at all, watching several stocks you think are good prospects and starting with a small position which you increase if the stock falls is probably the best option.  Unfortunately, that strategy is difficult for anyone who does not pay daily attention to the market.

Disclosure: Long HASI, EBAY, UMICF, SCHN.  Small long positions in AMRC and GLGI.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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List of Pollution Control Stocks https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/07/list-of-pollution-control-stocks/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/07/list-of-pollution-control-stocks/#respond Tue, 17 Jul 2018 13:54:13 +0000 http://3.211.150.150/?p=8967 Spread the love        Pollution control stocks are publicly traded companies whose business involves technologies for removing or reducing the emissions of harmful pollutants, contaminants, and/or waste from human activity, or removing these pollutants from the environment or water. This article was last updated on 6/25/2020. Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. (ADES) Advanced Disposal Services (ADSW) Babcock & […]

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Pollution control stocks are publicly traded companies whose business involves technologies for removing or reducing the emissions of harmful pollutants, contaminants, and/or waste from human activity, or removing these pollutants from the environment or water.

This article was last updated on 6/25/2020.

pollution
Pollution, Ribeira, Galicia​. Photo by Lmbuga [GFDL or CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. (ADES)
Advanced Disposal Services (ADSW)
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW)
Bion Environmental Technologies (BNET)
Biorem Inc. (BRM.V, BIRMF)
Casella Waste Systems (CWST)
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE)
CDTi Advanced Materials, Inc. (CDTI)
Clearsign Combustion Corp. (CLIR)
CO2 Solutions, Inc. (CST.V, COSLF)
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI)
Ecolab, Inc. (ECL)
EcoSphere Technologies, Inc. (ESPH)
Euro Tech Holdings (CLWT)
Fuel Tech (FTEK)
iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN)
OriginClear (OCLN)
Pacific Green Technologies Inc. (PGTK)
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)
Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK)
Trading Emissions PLC (TRE.L)
Umicore S.A. (UMI.BR, UMICY, UMICF)
Waste Connections (WCN)
Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

If you know of any pollution control stock that is not listed here, or think one of the stocks above should not be in the list, please let us know by leaving a comment.

 

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List of Battery Stocks https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/04/list-of-battery-stocks/ https://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/04/list-of-battery-stocks/#comments Sun, 15 Apr 2018 23:17:14 +0000 http://3.211.150.150/?p=8610 Spread the love5       5SharesBattery stocks are publicly traded companies whose business involves the manufacture of batteries, battery components, or battery management systems used to store electricity through electrochemical means. This list was last updated on 3/21/2022. Advanced Battery Technologies Inc (ABAT) Albermarle Corp (ALB) Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Axion Power International (AXPW) BioSolar, Inc. (BSRC) BYD […]

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Battery stocks are publicly traded companies whose business involves the manufacture of batteries, battery components, or battery management systems used to store electricity through electrochemical means.

This list was last updated on 3/21/2022.

By Info redflowltd [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL], from Wikimedia Commons
Advanced Battery Technologies Inc (ABAT)
Albermarle Corp (ALB)
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)
Axion Power International (AXPW)
BioSolar, Inc. (BSRC)
BYD Company, Ltd. (BYDDY)
China BAK Battery (CBAK)
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750.SZ)
Eguana Technologies Inc. (EGT.V)
Electrovaya, Inc. (EFL.TO)
EnerSys (ENS)
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)
ESS Inc. (GWH)
Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC)
Flux Power Holdings, Inc (FLUX)
Global X Lithium ETF (LIT)
Highpower International (HPJ)
Invinity Energy Systems (IES.L, IVVGF)
Johnson Controls (JCI)
Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (LICY)
Lithium Technology Corporation (LTHUQ)
Livent Corporation (LTHM)
mPhase Technologies (XDSL)
Microvast Holdings, Inc. (MVST)
Nano One Materials Corp. (NNO.V)
NGK Insulators Ltd. (NGKIF, 5333.T)
OM Group (OMG)
Powin Energy Corp. (PWON)
QuantumScape (NYSE: QS)
Redflow Limited (RFX.AX)
Saft Group (SGPEF)
Ultralife Batteries Inc (ULBI)
Umicore S.A. (UMI.BR, UMICY, UMICF)
Vendum Batteries, Inc. (VNDB)
Zinc8 Energy Solutions (ZAIR.CN, MGXRF)

If you know of any battery stock that is not listed here and should be, please let us know by leaving a comment. Also for stocks in the list that you think should be removed.

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