By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

The Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 model portfolio had a decent year.  With a 13.2% total return, it handily beat its clean energy income stock benchmark, the Global X Renewable Energy Producers ETF (RNRG, formerly YLCO), which fell 12.1%.  It did not, however, compare as well to the wider universe of income stocks, which had an excellent year, with its benchmark SDY up 27.2%.

The poor performance of clean energy stocks in 2021 was largely due to the bursting of a clean energy bubble which formed in the second half of 2020 fueled by speculation about and then the reality of a pro-climate Democrat in the White House.  

Although Biden and the Democrats in Congress are pushing things in the right direction (a complete and welcome reversal from Trump and the Republicans), the ability of both parties to make meaningful change is usually overestimated by investors around an election.  This led to inevitable disappointment and the deflation of the clean energy stock bubble of late 2020.

I started the year cautious about this bubble, and mostly picked stocks which had participated less in the late-2020 rally, but might still be able to benefit from the additional money sloshing around in the space.  This led to the model portfolio’s decent gains, although I was not able to overcome the headwinds.

Individual stock gains from expected refinancing at Green Plains Partners (GPP) and an unsurprising buyout of undervalued Covanta Holding (CVA) more than offset a bad call at Eneti (NETI) where I expected management to be better stewards of shareholder capital than they turned out to be.  Their relentless pursuit of expansion plans led to an ill-timed and dilutive secondary offering of shares in November.

2022 

I am not going to be publishing a Ten Clean Energy Stocks list for 2022.  Because I am launching a hedge fund with Investment Research Partners, and I will need to be investing new funds as they come into the fund, it would not be fair to hedge fund investors to share my best ideas with readers at the same time I am investing their funds.

If I were to share those picks, they would be focused on those clean energy stocks which have suffered the worst from the bursting of the bubble.  However, I would retain a cautious stance overall, because I continue to think the broad market is overvalued.  A new bear market would hurt the clean energy sector, even those stocks which fell significantly in 2021.

I will continue writing, but my stock commentary may be a bit less timely, and I will emphasize investing strategy a bit more.

If I had to be optimistic about a sector, it would be clean transportation.  The supply chain disruptions of the last two years have hurt the whole auto sector badly, and the recovery, when it eventually comes, could lead to impressive rebound in both profitability and stock prices.

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: Wrap Up appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

Here’s the performance through August for the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 model portfolio…  The market has turned down a bit since then but the relative performance has not changed significantly.  The model portfolio is still well ahead of its benchmarks., both clean energy (RNRG) and broad market (SDY).I don’t know if this recent downturn is just a blip, or the start of the possible larger decline I’ve been worrying about.  But I’m prepared if it’s the latter.

DISCLOSURE: Long positions all the stocks in the model portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks Performance Chart appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

2020 ended with a massive spike in clean energy stock prices.  From the end of October, election euphoria drove Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) from $63.32 to $136 at the close on February 9th, a 114% gain in 100 days.  

Joe Biden is as strong a supporter of clean energy as Donald Trump was a supporter of big fossil fuel companies, but even with control of the presidency and both chambers of congress, there is a limit to what a president can do in a short time.  This is especially true when their top priority is (as it should be) dealing with a pandemic.

Acknowledgement of this reality seems to be setting in. as I write on March 5th, PBW is now down almost 35% from its high.  If the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P 500 had fallen 35%, this would be the depths of a bear market.  Clean energy stocks are generally much more volatile than the broad market, but, even so, a 35% decline should make investors sit up and take notice.

I focus on clean energy income stocks because they tend not to be subject to such wild swings.  The benchmark I use, the Global X Renewable Energy Producers ETF (RNRG – formerly YLCO) is also down significantly- 26% from its high of $20.20.

Pop! Goes the Bubble

With these large declines, it’s time to assess what’s next.  Large drops like this don’t happen without some panic among investors.  As always in a panic like this one, we need to assess:

1. Has anything fundamentally changed which would justify the declines and possibly further declines.
2. Is the panic approaching capitulation, when there is no one left to get scared and sell, or does the panic have farther to run?

Fundamentals

The biggest fundamental change is that interest rates are creeping up. This is in reaction to the expected spending in the Biden rescue package, and fears that we may see a surge of pent-up consumer spending as the vaccine allows the end of lock-down measures this summer.

These higher interest rates make stocks, especially income stocks like the ones I focus on, less attractive compared to bonds.  Higher interest rates also make it harder for companies to use debt to finance new investments, and so can reduce future earnings expectations.

While all these things are true, I expect their long term impact to be limited.  Most importantly, I do not expect interest rate increases to be large.  Interest rates have been historically low: It would take a much larger rise than I expect to bring them to a level that is not still low.  

There may also be some demand driven inflation in the summer, but I do not expect the demand or inflation surges to persist.

Similarly, the effect on future earnings from higher interest rates is also likely to be limited.  Most companies have been very active refinancing in the recent low interest rate environment, often bringing plans for future debt offerings forward.  This means that most will have the flexibility to reduce borrowing in the short to medium term if interest rates rise significantly.

Will Panic Lead To More Panic?

This is just a feeling based on having watched many market panics over the years, but I feel that the panic seems to be reaching its maximum.  I think the short term bottom will happen in the next couple weeks.  

I’m buying (actually selling slightly out of the money cash covered puts), especially clean energy infrastructure stocks like Yieldcos that I had been selling because of high valuations in December and January.  These include AY, NEP, AGR, and CWEN/A.  The amounts of each depend mostly on the size of my current positions- this is less a call about individual stock valuation and more one of market timing.

Conclusion

It’s time to bring much of that cash I’ve been telling people to keep on the sidelines for the last several months back into the game.

DISCLOSURE: Long positions all the stocks mentioned.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post Pop Goes the Clean Energy Stock Bubble appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

This list was last updated on 4/27/2022.

ETFs are Exchange-listed funds which pool investor’s money for the purpose of making Alternative Energy investments. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) track a specified Alternative Energy index. This list also includes closed-end mutual funds and other pooled investments which trade on exchanges.

ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES)
ASN Groenprojectenfonds (ASNGF.AS)
Bluefield Solar Income Fund (BSIF.L)
Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF (HDRO)
Evolve Funds Automobile Innovation Index ETF (CARS.TO)
First Trust Global Wind Energy Index (FAN)
First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (GRID)
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund  (QCLN)
Foresight Solar Fund Limited (FSFL.L)
Global X Lithium ETF (LIT)
Global X Uranium ETF (URA)
Global X Renewable Energy Producers ETF (RNRG), (formerly YLCO)
Greencoat Renewables Fund (GRP.IR)
Greencoat UK Wind PLC (UKW.L)
Harvest Clean Energy ETF (HCLN.TO)
Invesco Global Clean Energy ETF (PBD)
Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (CUT)
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN)
Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy (PBW)
iShares Global Timber & Forestry Index Fund (WOOD)
iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (IDRV)
iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index ETF (ICLN)
iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (NUCL)
KraneShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility Index ETF (KARS)
KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (KRBN)
NextEnergy Solar Ord (NESF.L)
Pickens Morningstar® Renewable Energy Response ETF (RENW)
SPDR Kensho Clean Power ETF (XKCP)
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG.L)
Triodos Groenfonds NV (TRIGF.AS)
VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG)
Van Eck Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR)
Van Eck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX)

If you know of any alternative energy ETF or ETP that is not listed here, but which should be, please let us know in the comments.  Also for funds in the list that you think should be removed.

Thanks to Peter Smit for his extensive suggestions for updates to this list.

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