By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

With the launch of my (green dividend income focused) hedge fund early this year, I had to take a hiatus from publishing my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks that I feel will do well in the coming year.  Since my duty to clients takes precedence over readers, I could not tell people about stocks I liked before buying them for the fund.

As we complete the first half of the year, the fund is now largely invested, although I am still keeping some buying power back in anticipation that the overall market could easily fall further, leading to even better opportunities than we see today.  

Since I’m not actively buying in the fund, I am now free to share my top picks with the public.  Like everything in my hedge fund, these are all companies that, in my judgment, reduce the fossil fuel use, carbon emissions, or other pollution in the overall economy by operating and expanding their businesses.

I probably won’t be able to publish monthly updates to this list as I have in the past.  If I am actively buying any one of these stocks, I will not be writing about it, and I will not want to tip my hand by writing about the others while just omitting one or two.  But I plan to publish intermittent updates on the whole list when I can, and will do a recap in July 2023 to look at how the list did in the past year and why.

Valuation and Timing

The recent declines of the stock market are finally giving us decent valuations, better than anything we’ve seen since the short-lived market bottom in early 2020.  That’s not to say that the market will not fall further, but it’s likely that many individual stocks are currently seeing their lows. 

Whenever I see a stock I like trading at a good valuation, I buy some.  If it falls further because of a continued general market decline (as opposed to bad news at the company itself), I buy more. These ten stocks have all reached the “buy more” stage.  If the market keeps falling, I’ll soon be ready to invest everything I can, and even start using uncovered short puts to take on a bit of leverage.

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022-2023: The List

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

Ten Green Stocks I expect to do well over the next year (7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023)

Prices are as of the close on 6/30/2022.  1€ = $1.0482, $1 = 7.0972 DKK = C$1.2876 

Clean Transportation Stocks

• MiX Telematics (NASD:MIXT – $8.14) – A provider of vehicle tracking and telematics to large international vehicle fleets.  The company is green because it both reduces accidents and fuel usage for its customers.
• Valeo, SA (FR.PA – €18.42 or US ADR: VLEEY or US foreign stock ticker: VLEEF) – a provider of electrified drive trains, sensors, and comfort systems for the automotive industry.
• NFI Industries (NFI.TO C$13.39 or US foreign stock ticker: NFYEF) – A leading international bus and motorcoach manufacturer selling a large and growing number of electrified vehicles.  N

Green Building Stocks

Rockwool A/S (ROCK-B.CO 1597.50 DKK and ROCK-A.CO or US foreign stock ticker: RKWBF) – a manufacturer of fire and mold resistant building insulation.

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (NASD:HASI) – A financier of solar, wind, biogas, and energy efficiency installations.

Green Municipal Infrastructure Stock

Veolia (VIE.PA €23.29 or US ADR: VEOEY or US foreign stock ticker: VEOEF) – A large international developer and operator of municipal infrastructure such as water, wastewater, recycling, and environmental remediation.

Biofuel Stock

Enviva, Inc (EVA $57.22) – A vertically integrated wood pellet supplier to European and Japanese markets, where they mostly displace coal in electricity generation.

Recycling Stock

Umicore, SA (UMI.BR €33.32 or US ADR: UMICY or US foreign stock ticker: UMICF) – A vertically integrated recycler of hard-to-recycle and specialty metals used in clean energy industries such as batteries, solar, wind, and catalytic converters.

Green Electricity (Yieldcos)

Avangrid (NYSE: AGR $46.12) – one of the top producers and developers of renewable electricity in the United States.  

Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (NASD: AY $32.26) – an international owner and developer of renewable energy, efficient natural gas, electric transmission line and water assets.

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022/23 portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022-2023: The List appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

Even as the broad market rose, the start of 2021 was brutal for clean energy stocks. The sector experienced a bubble in late 2020 and January this year as optimism grew that we finally had a President who understands the magnitude of the climate problem and has committed to do something about it. The bubble also grew from the great hope that with the presidency and slim majorities in both houses of congress, he would actually be able to get his agenda through.

That might have happened if the Senate Republicans were interested in governing and solving this country’s problems, or if the Democrats majority did not depend on a coal state Democrat like Joe Manchin, who takes regular meetings with fossil fuel lobbyists.

With climate, renewable energy, and social infrastructure stripped out of the slim bipartisan infrastructure deal, action on climate depends on getting them into a reconciliation deal which Senate democrats would pass without any Republican votes.  That means this bill would need the vote of every Senate Democrat, including Manchin and Kristen Sinema.  

This leaves a large investment in climate infrastructure between a rock and a hard place. Progressive Democrats in the House (rightly, in my opinion) are making their support for the bipartisan traditional infrastructure package recently agreed by Joe Biden and five moderate senators from each party contingent on getting a strong reconciliation bill which includes climate action.  But any such bill will have to get every Democratic vote in the Senate, which gives Manchin and other conservative Democrats a veto on any part of it.

There is still a good chance that such a reconciliation bill will pass, but January’s euphoria is rightfully gone.

Reasons for Bottom

When things are darkest, and investors are looking for reasons to be pessimistic rather than reasons to hope is the best time to buy.  Clean energy stock ETFs like PBW and RNRG seem to have found bottom in May.  Biden is still making progress on climate with executive actions despite the congressional deadlock. Local and international governments are also not sitting idle waiting on the dysfunctional US congress.  Further, economics are now on the side of renewable energy:

• In many places, it now costs less to build new solar plants than to run existing coal plants to produce electricity
• It costs less to build and operate an all-electric home than one that uses fossil fuels in most parts of the US.
• Wind, solar, electric and batteries are continue to fall in price, making these already competitive technologies the most cost-effective option in more and more situations.

On top of all that, we still may see significant spending on climate out of a reconciliation bill this fall.

Conditions feel right for clean energy stocks to resume their upward trend.  That assumes, of course, that the market as a whole remains stable.  

10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2021

Below are the first half 2021 returns for the Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio.  I feel Eneti (NETI) and Valeo (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY) are particularly attractive right now. 

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 portfolio, including NETI and VLEEF.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post Finding a Bottom and Model Portfolio First Half Returns appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

Since my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list contains 5 foreign stocks this year, a reader asked about the relative merits of buying a foreign stock compared to a US ADR.  Here is a summary of the relative merits (for US investors) of buying a foreign stock directly compared to buying the American Depository Receipt (ADR).

First, let’s look at the tickers for the five foreign stocks in the list.  There are four types of ticker in the list this year:

1. The stock on its home exchange in the local currency.  These have the form TICKER.EX, where TICKER is the stock ticker on the foreign exchange, and EX is an abbreviation for the name of the exchange.  European stocks usually trade on several European exchanges. I try to use the ticker on the exchange with the most liquidity, which is usually also in the company’s home country.
2. The US ticker for the foreign stock – a five letter ticker ending in F.
3. An unlisted ADR – a five letter ticker ending in Y which trades over the counter.
4. A listed ADR – this is an ADR that trades on a US stock exchange such as the NASDAQ or NYSE.

For the companies in the list this year, MiX Telematics is the only one with a listed ADR, MIXT.  I don’t usually mention its listing on the Johannesburg stock exchange, MIX.JO because it does not have a corresponding US ticker, but include it here for completeness.

The others all have unlisted ADRs:

ADR fees are often withheld from dividend payments to ADR holders, but can also be charged directly to the account holding the ADR.  Both holders of the foreign stock and holders of the ADR will also have foreign taxes withheld from the dividend payment.

I have not found any way to determine how much an ADR fee will be.  Sponsoring banks can change ADR fees over time, and sometimes they are charged as a fixed number of cents, other times they are a percentage of the dividend.  I called and asked my broker to look up the total ADR fees charged on each of the ADRs above in 2020.  The results are in the last column. 

Foreign Stock or ADR?

To determine if you are better off buying the foreign stock (F ticker) or the ADR (Y ticker), you should first determine the commission your broker will likely charge you for either trade.  I usually just enter the trade into my broker’s online platform to see the estimated commission but hit “Cancel” instead of confirming the trade.  If the commissions for the foreign stock and the ADR are the same, then buy the foreign stock.

If the commission to buy the foreign stock is higher, then you have to consider how long you plan to hold the stock and how much you intend to buy.  

Small investors and investors not expecting to hold the stock for long will find the ADR is usually more cost effective. Larger investors and long term holders should generally buy the foreign stock.

Rule of Thumb

I find that I typically pay an extra $50 per trade for a foreign stock compared to an ADR.  I generally hold stocks for one to five years. Since there is also a similar fee to sell the stock, I will generally pay an extra $100 to buy and sell a foreign stock.  Annual ADR fees seem to usually be around 1% of the share price, so if I can make a trade large enough to keep the extra commission paid less than 1% and hold the stock longer than a year, it makes sense to buy the foreign stock rather than the ADR.

As a formula, I buy the foreign stock if 

D x Y > 100 x C 

Where D is the size of the trade in dollars (500 shares at $10 is $5,000), Y is the number of years I expect to hold the stock or ADR, and C is the extra commission I have to pay to buy the foreign stock.  Since my expected holding time is typically stocks is 2 years or more and I usually pay an extra $50 to trade foreign stocks, the foreign stock purchase will usually make sense for trades of $3,000 or more.  

In general, I dislike ADR fees, so I try to buy foreign stocks using large trades. 

DISCLOSURE: Long MIXT, REDIF, VLEEF, VEOEF, UMICF..

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post Buying Foreign Stocks: To ADR or Not To ADR appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

The last three months of 2020 brought an explosion in clean energy stock prices.

Solar stocks (as measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), nearly tripled.  So did the Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), which includes a broader spectrum of companies.  Wind stock rose 61%, and even the relatively sedate Yieldcos were up 32%.  The stars of the last half of 2020 was undoubtedly Tesla (TSLA, up 246%) and other electric vehicle stocks.

Money Flows Out of Fossil Fuels and Into Clean Energy

I believe that the cause of the current rise in stock prices is largely the fossil fuel divestment movement, which gained significant momentum in 2020.  Not only have I been hearing greater interest in divestment from individuals, but major money managers like Blackrock and the New York State Pension Fund have stated their plans to divest from fossil fuels over time.  If you have not already taken your money out of fossil fuel stocks, you are late to the game.  As I wrote in 2014, when it comes to divestment, the last one out loses.

The same goes for investing in clean energy stocks.  While not all the money taken out of fossil fuel stocks flows into clean energy stocks, some of it does.  The market capitalization of clean energy stocks is quite small compared to the amount of money flowing into the sector: Demand for shares in clean energy companies is rising faster than companies are going public or issuing new shares.

Issuing New Shares

Economics 101 tells us that when demand increases faster than supply, the price rises.  This is exactly what we have seen in clean energy stocks in the second half of 2020.  We also learned that when price rises, it induces increased supply: More clean energy companies will go public and/or issue new shares.

Rising stock prices bring more than just stock market profits, they are also significant for the companies.  Companies will refrain from raising money in secondary offerings unless they are confident that the offering will be “non-dilutive.”  A non-dilutive share offering is one in which the money will be invested in a way that increases earnings more as a percentage than the number of shares is increased.  This allows the offering to have the effect of increasing future earnings per share, despite the increase in the number of shares.

As a company’s stock price rises, more potential investments become non-dilutive, and investments that are already non-dilutive become even more attractive. The company’s private competitors will also benefit.  They will find it easier to raise money from investors who use the valuations of publicly listed firms to determine what the firm is worth.  

If clean energy stock prices stay at their current level for a few months, we will see increasing numbers of companies going public through IPOs and Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).  We will also see more established companies raising money through secondary offerings.

The Gold Rush

As I learned when I took California History in elementary school, the most reliable way to make money in the state’s 1849 gold rush was to sell picks and shovels to aspiring gold miners.  Three of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 model portfolio are metaphorical picks and shovel suppliers to clean energy industries.

If Tesla’s stock price rise is any guide, there will be significant new investment flowing into manufacturing electric vehicles.  Autoparts manufacturer Valeo, SA (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY) specializes in vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, and comfort systems, so it’s clearly well positioned to help automakers focus more on Tesla’s specialties: Electric and autonomous driving.

Global water, energy, and waste management giant Veolia (VIE.PA, VEOEF, VEOEY) is also firmly in the picks and shovels business, although their clients are more often large multinational companies and municipalities rather than clean energy firms.  Yet Veolia is a potential beneficiary from the boom in clean energy stocks.  They own and develop clean energy and recycling projects which could potentially be sold when acquisitive clean energy companies start bidding up the prices of clean energy projects.  They also have access to valuable urban real estate at their municipal utilities where they could develop solar and wind projects for sale to clean energy firms with money to spend.

Umicore, SA (UMI.BR, UMICF, UMICY) is also well positioned for the boom in electric vehicles.  It produces cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries, and is a battery recycler.  The electric vehicle boom is currently constrained by the supply of lithium-ion batteries and the supply of specialty metals (lithium, manganese, cobalt and nickel) that go into their manufacture.  The mining of many of these materials often takes place under exploitative and environmentally harmful conditions in poor countries.  Although still a small portion of the battery materials market, Umicore’s recycled materials can claim a price premium based on battery manufacturer commitments to ethically sourced raw materials.  Although still in their infancy, recycled content mandates like the one Europe recently passed will also play a role.

Finally, dry bulk shipping firm Scorpio Bulkers, Inc. (SALT) is repositioning itself to sell picks and shovels to the burgeoning offshore wind industry.  Dry bulk shippers carry bulk unpackaged cargoes like ore, grains, coal, and metals.  Scorpio is selling its dry bulk shipping fleet and using the proceeds to buy offshore wind turbine installation vessels.  In addition, it is applying to change its name to better reflect its future business.  

While SALT’s first wind turbine installation vessel is unlikely to be delivered until 2023, I believe that the rebranding will allow the company to attract part of the flood of cash pouring into the clean energy space.  

It is also value priced. The company had 11.5 million shares outstanding, $1,429 million in assets, and $675 million in liabilities at the end of September 2020.  It expects to write down the market value of its vessels by between $475 million and $500 million to reflect their true market value.  That market value is also the price at which they are currently being sold.  It has made nine announcements of ship sales since mid-November.  Since the sales are ongoing, we can expect its write-down estimates to be reasonably accurate.  After the sale of its vessels, its main assets will be easy-to-value cash and contracts to buy wind turbine installation vessels.  After subtracting liabilities, Scorpio will be worth approximately $254 million to $279 million, or $22 to $24 per share.  The stock is currently trading in the $17 to $18 range.

Conclusion

Unless it suddenly reverses, the recent run-up in clean energy stock prices is likely to lead to a real-world investment boom in clean energy.  While undoubtedly necessary to accelerate the world’s transition away from fossil fuels, not all such investments will be profitable, especially when they amount to buying other clean energy companies at also inflated prices.

During an investment boom, the companies selling tools and supplies to the investors are often more profitable than the investments themselves.  That’s what I hope for Valeo, Umicore, and Scorpio Bulkers (under a new name that highlights its new business) in 2021.

DISCLOSURE: Long VLEEF, UMICF, SALT, VEOEF

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post Four Picks and Shovels Stocks appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

An annual tradition, here is my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021, which is also the new model portfolio for the year, with equal dollar values of each stock using closing prices on 12/29/2020.   

Returning Stocks

• Mix Telematics (MIXT)
• Green Plains Partners (GPP)
• Covanta Holding (CVA)
• Red Electrica (REE.MC, RDEIF, RDEIY)
• Valeo, SA (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY)
• Veolia (VIE.PA, VEOEF, VEOEY)

New Stocks

• Scorpio Bulkers, Inc. (SALT) – Dry bulk shipper converting to offshore wind construction.  Thanks to Thad Curtz for bringing my attention to this one.
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (BEP) – A leading clean energy Yieldco with significant hydropower assets.
• Umicore, SA (UMI.BR, UMICF, UMICY) – Leading recycler of batteries and specialty metals.
• Avangrid (AGR) – Owner of renewable generation and utilities.

As I track this model portfolio over the year, I will continue using the Global X YieldCo & Renewable Energy Income ETF (YLCO) as a clean energy benchmark and the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) as a broad market benchmark, while throwing in the performance of my real money managed portfolio, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP) for good measure.  The chart below shows preliminary numbers for 2020.

As I discussed last week, this was another difficult year to find clean energy stocks that I think are good values.  It’s a great thing for the planet that the fossil fuel divestment movement seems to be driving up the prices of clean energy stocks, but it makes life harder for value investors like me.

Given the high valuations, I think it’s important to keep some cash on the sidelines, but my track record on calling market tops is abysmal, so I never get totally out of the market.  

I’ll be following up this list with a series of articles looking at the individual holdings in depth over the next week.  My Patreon supporters can read drafts of the first two here and here.

Update

You can now read all the articles looking at these stocks in more depth through the links below:

• Valeo, Veolia, Umicore, and Scorpio
• Covanta, Green Plains Partners, Avangrid, and Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners
• MiX Telematics and Red Eléctrica

DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the list.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: The List appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

The stock market took off in November, fueled by very positive covid-19 vaccine news, and possibly also the prospect of a little competence and sanity in the White House.  While both of these are unambiguously positive for the economy, I think investors are seeing the future through rose colored glasses.

What a Biden Victory Means for the Economy

A Biden victory is good news in that we will finally have someone in the White House who will work to reduce the infection rate in the pandemic, rather than vacillating between wishful thinking and actively spurring it on by denigrating mask wearing and organizing mass rallies seemingly designed to spread the disease.  

A Biden victory is also good news because it means we will have someone in the White House who will be actively working to get a pandemic relief bill through Congress.  Chances of that bill being large enough to tackle the problem depend on Democrats winning both of the Senate run-off races in Georgia.  If the Republicans keep either of those seats, McConnell will continue to control the Senate, and McConnell has said he wants a $500Bn relief bill–far too small to deal with the damage being caused by the out-of-control pandemic, and the lockdowns states are being forced to impose in response.  Polls for both races are within the margin of error, with the Republican leading slightly in one and the other being a dead heat.  Even if we assume that voters will focus on control of the Senate and not split their votes, Democratic chances of controlling the Senate are likely below 50%.  Since the Dems need to wind both races, significant vote-splitting will ensure McConnell remains in charge.

What the Vaccine News Means For the Economy

The big news on the vaccine front in November was not that the first vaccines will likely start being administered before the end of December (while the timing was uncertain, getting the first doses in December seemed likely.)  The fact that the early results show that three of the prospective vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing infections is both a surprise and significant reason for optimism.

While the likely high efficacy of these vaccines is excellent news, there is still a long way between vaccine trial results and getting enough of the population vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus.  The main reason I do not invest in technology startup companies is because so many things can go wrong between promising lab results and selling a product to the mass market.  I see the producing and distribution of these vaccines as an  analogous situation.  We will be attempting to vaccinate the majority of the population faster than it has ever been done before.  

We also lack long term studies of the effects of these vaccines.  How long are they effective? We know that there are cases of people who have had the virus getting it again, leading us to believe that natural immunity is not permanent. Vaccine-induced immunity will likely also fade over time.  Even if a vaccine is 95% effective for the first month, how effective will it be six months or a year later?  

Production and distribution snafus, are possible as well, and we still need to persuade a majority of the population that they should get the vaccine.

President Trump claims that we will be able to get most of the population vaccinated by June 2021.  Given the source, we can comfortably assume that this is a wildly optimistic, if not impossible goal to achieve.  So even if everything goes right with the vaccine, the earliest we can expect to be able to relax social distancing measures will be the second half of 2021, and the economic damage will continue to be done at least until that happens.  

2021 Outlook

In short, my 2021 outlook remains grim, and the good vaccine news plus Biden victory which have led to the November rally do not seem to justify a 15%-ish rise in an already overvalued market.  I will continue to approach the market with extreme caution until I see actual economic recovery, or a large market decline leading to much better stock valuations.

Model Portfolio

Despite my caution, the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 model portfolio did well in November.

The model portfolio has finally broken even for the year, in line with its broad market income stock benchmark, SDY.  However, compared to its clean energy income stock benchmark (YLCO, up 18%) and my real money Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP, up 20%), the performance continues to be disappointing.  You can find my thoughts on why it might be lagging in my September update.

Individual Stocks

All stocks seem expensive to me right now, and I generally prefer to move to the sidelines than play the relative valuation game in an overvalued market.  In general, I like the companies in the portfolio, but am not buying and am taking some profits or selling calls on the larger positions.  

I published a few earnings highlights for my supporters on Patreon in late October and early November.  They are a little out of date now, but I’ve changed the permissions so that everyone can read them at these links:

• Mix Telematics (MIXT): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43288860
• Covanta Holding (CVA): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43302522
• Valeo (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43453098
• Green Plains Partners (GPP): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43782924
• NFI Group (NFI.TO, NFYEF): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43791404

Note that I have become significantly less pessimistic about NFI Group since I wrote the note above because the vaccines seem likely to be more effective than I was assuming in early November.

I also published a note about Brookfield Renewable (BEP, BEPC): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43707068, which is not currently in the portfolio, but has often been in the past.  

Conclusion

I’m still waiting for a downturn before I’m ready to start buying.  Yes, the election and vaccine news are good for the economy, but the stock market never seemed to reflect just how bad the economy is likely to get before the recent news, and it still does not.  

I continue slowly taking more profits as my stocks rise by selling covered calls or portions of my positions.

DISCLOSURE: Long positions all the stocks in the model portfolio with the exception of NFYEF is now a very small position.  

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Rose Colored Covid appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

After a couple down market days, all the limit orders I listed on Monday have executed.

Here is the current portfolio:

Coming Up:

Third quarter earnings season is starting… I plan to write short notes on earnings as they come out for my Patreon supporters, which will be compiled into longer articles on AltEnergyStocks.com a few days later.

Also, I’m doing a talk on how to divest from fossil fuels with the founder of divestor.org this coming Monday at 8:30 pm ET for the Climate and Health subgroup of Citizens Climate Lobby  It’s open to the public, so follow the link if you are interested.

Disclosure: Long positions all the stocks in the model portfolio with the exception of NFYEF.  

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updated Model Portfolio appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

A secular shift in the transportation paradigm?

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

I’m continually surprised at the strength and length of the stock market recovery in the face of a worsening pandemic in the US.

The stock market may not be the economy, but it’s not totally divorced from the economy either.  Perhaps the Senate’s unwillingness to even talk about another aid package and the subsequent failure to pass one until after the benefits in the initial CARES act expire will trigger the market reversal I’ve been expecting at least since late April.  Or it won’t.  I have a long track record of being too early on my calls for market corrections, but this is getting ridiculous.

In any case, the long rally has given me ample opportunity to take gains in winners and losses in companies likely to take permanent damage from the pandemic.  I’ve also been selling covered calls and otherwise positioning the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio, which I manage, for a renewed market downturn.

For the 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio, no change.  This is simply because I try to minimize trading in the model portfolio; I want it to be a strategy that a small investor who only looks at her portfolio a couple times a year can emulate.  In the past, that has sometimes helped and sometimes hurt.  This year, it has hurt.  2020 has been a great year to be a trader, with the wild market gyrations.  I expect those gyrations to continue, and the model portfolio will stand pat.

If we do see a sharp market decline in the next couple of months, I will probably change that.  In that case, I will cash out the gains on the cash covered put positions, and use the money freed up to invest in whatever bargains a renewed market decline creates.

Earnings Season Begins

Over the last couple weeks, I have been sharing my thoughts on various company’s second quarter earnings with my Patreon supporters.  If you’d like to support my writing and see those thoughts in a more timely manner, consider becoming a patron. becoming a patron.

For everyone else, I’m reprinting those thoughts below.

Conclusion

Taken together, these three stock updates flesh out a theme I see emerging from the coronavirus pandemic: I expect social distancing to be with us, at least in part, permanently.

Few people are talking about the long term effects of the pandemic… the usual conversation I hear is along the lines of “when this is over and things go back to normal.”  That is a nice thought, and we all hope for it, but hope is not generally a wise investment strategy.

Even if/when we have a vaccine, it could easily be like the flu vaccine: able to slow the spread, but not completely effective.  Successful investors anticipate the likely future, not the future they want to see.

If some level of social distancing becomes a permanent feature of our society, this will permanently harm collective transportation, like New Flyer’s buses and airlines.  It will help companies which allow us to do our jobs remotely (like MiX’s telematics software) or through sensors and automation (Valeo.)

Disclosure: Long positions all the stocks in the model portfolio, although NFYEF is now a very small position.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: July Update on Valeo MiX, and NFI appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

The coronavirus pandemic no longer has the United States by its financial center throat, the New York City area, but is instead is now gnawing ravenously at its arms and legs.  In June, the stock market seems to be just starting to get a clue that this is also a bad thing, leading to a month of volatility and general consolidation.

Europe, in a display of relative competence, has been much more effective than the US at getting the pandemic beast under control, and so investors looking for safe havens might do well to look there.  In my  10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 model portfolio, the European stocks Veolia (VEOEF/VEOEY), Red Electrica (RDEIF/REDIY), and Valeo (VLEEF/VLEEY) have all been outperforming the portfolio as a whole, and I expect them to continue to do so.

I continue to expect the this period of consolidation to end in a significant market decline, possibly testing the March market lows.  This virus is not done with us and the willful blindness of Trump and the Republican politicians who unquestioningly follow his lead are ensuring that it will get much worse before it gets better.  As more states shift from re-opening to re-closing, the economic damage will continue to mount, and eventually investors will take notice.

I continue to reduce my stock market exposure by taking gains and selling covered calls.

In this hiatus between earnings seasons, news for individual stocks has been minimal, but the model portfolio has continued to recover with small gains in almost every position.

Performance for the portfolio as a whole, my real-money managed strategy GGEIP, and their benchmarks are shown below:

Final Thoughts

Most years, the 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio has tracked my real money managed portfolio fairly closely, and both have outperformed both benchmarks for the last five years.

2020 is of course unique in many ways, but it bothers me that the model portfolio is underperforming so badly.  This is largely due to my long term policy of minimizing trading in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks strategy.  I adopted this policy because I want the model portfolio to be something that the average investor can replicate without having to pay too much attention to their portfolio.

Most years, the lack of trading has not cost much.  With the rapid stock market gyrations this year, it has.  I hope my notes about my shorter term market outlook in these monthly updates have allowed many of you to beat the model portfolio as well.

NOTE: My Patreon supporters got an early look at this article.  You can help support my writing and read my articles in a more timely manner by becoming a patron.

Disclosure: Long positions all the stocks in the model portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: June Update appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA

For the last few monthly updates, I’ve been focusing on the big picture, and have neglected to say anything about many of the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020  since I looked at how the pandemic would likely affect each stock in March.

This month, I’m trying to rectify the oversight, and have been posting updates on individual stocks for my Patreon supporters since Friday.  Below is a collection of the updates I’ve published so far.  I am to keep posting one a day until I’ve gotten to all of them, after which I plan to publish another collection of updates on AltEnergyStocks.com for everyone.

In addition, here is the overall performance of the portfolio compared to its benchmarks so far this year:

In addition, here is a detailed view of the model portfolio showing the individual positions:

The relatively poor performance of the model portfolio so far this year is mostly due to my attempt to limit trading.  I do that because I want small investors who only look at the market a few times a year to be able to follow along.  Most years, I do no trading at all in the model portfolio, and its performance has seldom suffered for it.  This year I limited trading to two trades at the start of April.

The performance has also been hurt by the fact that I did not expect the strong rebound from March lows.  I still believe it could be short lived… we shall see.

Stock Updates

May 29th: Valeo (FR.PA, VLEEF) and France’s Stimulus Plan

Last week, French President Macron visited one of Valeo’s plants to announce a EURO 8 billion stimulus package for France’s car industry, and congratulate the auto parts supplier on how it has managed the lockdown and is preceding towards reopening.

The plan includes a large financial backstop for French carmaker Renault, support for the production and purchase of electric and hybrid vehicles, an attempt to “relocalize” auto manufacturing in France, and a scrapping program to get older, more polluting vehicles off the road.

The attempts to relocalize auto manufacturing and subsidies for EVs and hybrids are all likely to help Valeo, which was already a competitive player in the global auto parts industry, with a focus on vehicle electrification, safety, and automation.

May 30th: Cemig (CIG): It’s All About Brazil

Brazillian utility Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CIG), aka Cemig’s horrible performance so far this year has largely been about its home country Brazil.  If you were wondering if anyone could manage the coronavirus pandemic worse than Donald Trump, the answer is “Yes.”  Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsanaro, has been actively undermining local officials who take steps to try to slow the spread of the virus, has fired one health minister, lost another one over a clash about chloroquine as a treatment for the disease, and has most recently appointed a military general with no experience in public health to take their place.

With a raging epidemic second only to that in the US (as I write on May 29th, Brazil has roughly a quarter the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 as the United States in a country with roughly three fifths the population.  Unlike the US, where the initial outbreaks in New York, California, and Washington state have been brought mostly under control, known cases in Brazil are still doubling every two weeks.

It’s possible that the number of cases in Brazil already exceeds that in the US, but that the number is masked by a lack of testing.

On the business side, Cemig’s electricity sales have fallen significantly less (2%) than most US utilities, and they are taking numerous measures to conserve cash (including an annual dividend cut to 0.5 BRL /share or about $0.094, down from $0.11 in 2019.)

As bad as things are in Brazil, I think Cemig is doing what it needs to weather the storm… even if the storm gets worse.  While it does seem likely that the situation in Brazil will get worse before it gets better, I am holding because I don’t like to sell when most investors are running scared, unless the problems are likely to be fatal for the company.  As an essential utility, I expect Cemig will survive and return to health, so I continue to hold despite the uncertainty.

June 1st: Thoughts on Veolia (VIE.PA/VEOEF/VEOEY)

International water, waste, recycling, and environmental utility and service firm Veolia is well positioned to weather the impacts of the coronavirus.  Most of its services are considered essential in the countries in which it operates, and it is also well positioned to benefit from Europe’s green-oriented stimulus plan.

While the short term effects of the pandemic are likely to include increased costs for employee safety and delayed payments from its utility customers,  I expect the long term effects of the coronavirus  on its business to be positive as much of the world sees all the more reason to value cleaner air and water.

Veolia reduced its annual dividend (paid in May) to 0.50  Euro from 1 Euro in previous years to conserve cash during the crisis, but is on solid financial footing overall.  It’s oversubscribed  700 million euro 8 year  bond offering in April demonstrated its ability to easily obtain financing even during the crisis.

Overall, Veolia seems reasonably valued at the current price of 20.75 Euro / $23.

More on the way

I post updates for the remaining stocks (CVA, HASI, EBAY, NFYEF, GPP, RDEIF) in the next week or so… or you can see them on a daily basis by joining my Patreon supporters.

Disclosure: Long positions all the stocks mentioned.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice.  This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

The post 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: May Update Part 1 appeared first on Alternative Energy Stocks.